How Does the Housing Slowdown Affect Nonresidential Construction?
The following is from AGC News and Views - Volume 4 -- Issue 12 -- July 19, 2007 :
How Housing Helps or Hinders Nonresidential Construction
The woes of home builders, borrowers and would-be sellers have been much in the news, and seem likely to stay there. On July 18, for instance, the government reported that housing starts in June climbed 2.3 percent from the downwardly revised May total but were 19 percent below the June 2006 level.
More ominously, building permits, generally a reliable indicator of near-term future starts, fell 7.5 percent in June and were 25 percent lower than one year before. A day earlier, the National Association of Home Builders reported that its monthly index of builders’ expectations about activity six months ahead, as well as current traffic, fell to the lowest level since 1991.
Yet the bad news for housing has not slowed nonresidential activity appreciably, and may have helped nonresidential contractors find cheaper materials and more workers. Census Bureau numbers on construction spending show that in the first five months of 2007, nonresidential spending rose 15 percent, nearly offsetting an 18.5 percent decline in residential spending.
The escalation of materials costs has slowed dramatically in the past year, due in part to the slack demand for homebuilding inputs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on July 17 that the producer price index for construction inputs rose just 2.6 percent in the 12 months from June 2006 to June 2007, compared to increases of 9.1 percent in calendar 2004 and 8.2 percent in 2005. Two contributors to the cooldown were materials widely used in homebuilding: prices fell 13 percent in the last 12 months for gypsum products and 5.4 percent for lumber and plywood.
Residential building and specialty trade employment, two of BLS’s construction employment categories, appears to have fallen only 3.5 percent in the 12 months through June, according to estimates BLS released on July 6. Nonresidential building, specialty trade and heavy and civil engineering employment appear to have risen only 2.6 percent during that span. But reports from general contractors, as well as the data on the large swings in residential and nonresidential spending, suggest there has been a much bigger shift in employment. It is likely many employees of firms counted as residential specialty contractors are actually doing nonresidential work these days. That has helped general contractors keep more projects on track.
Of course, the housing slowdown also lowers demand for some types of nonresidential construction. When a subdivision isn’t built, neither are the accompanying stores, streets, schools and public facilities. But all of these categories are getting a boost from rising personal income and tax receipts. In general, nonresidential construction is probably get more help than hindrance from the lack of demand from homebuilding.
For more information, contact Ken Simonson at (703) 837-5313 or simonsonk@agc.org.
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